Los Angeles, California

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Site LE Agency
Los Angeles Police Department

Site Researcher
Craig Uchida, Ph.D., Justice and Security Strategies, Inc. (JSS)

Site Focus
Violent crime, Homicide clearance

SPI Strategy
Data analysis, Process evaluation, Evidence-based policing, Investigative strategies

Site Cohort
2018

Site Profile
Large urban area of 468.67 sq. miles with a population of 3,848,776

Project Overview

The Los Angeles SPI will use an extensive homicide database created by the FBI and LAPD called BIDMAS (Bureau of Investigation Document and Management Analysis System), which includes information from over 6,000 “Murder Books” from cases in Los Angeles from 1990 to 2010. The Los Angeles SPI will employ innovative machine learning techniques and advanced statistical methods to determine predictors of clearance and conviction rates for homicides and shootings and measure the degree to which predictors of gun homicide and shooting incidents are similar and different. Lastly, the SPI will create, test and evaluate an investigative tool based on deep learning algorithms and models. LAPD will aim to increase the solvability of homicides and shootings by determining the predictors of homicide clearances and convictions in Los Angeles, improve the prediction of case clearance and conviction for homicides by analyzing data from the Murder Books, and determine the impact of adopting the instrument/algorithm for predictors on clearance rates, conviction rates, and homicide rates.

Data Highlight

  • Between 2012 and 2017 in Los Angeles, the number of annual homicides ranged from 251 to 299, with the number of gang-related homicides ranging from 145 to 177.
  • Between 2012 and 2017, the homicide clearance rate ranged from 64.7% to 80.9%.
  • Between 2012 and 2017, the number of homicides involving a firearm ranged from 185 to 208 and the number of total victims shot ranged from 994 to 1,179.